基于生产模拟和分行业产值单耗的电力需求侧资源价值计算方法

Electricity demand-side resource value measurement method based on production simulation and unit consumption of output value by sector

中文关键词: 生产模拟  需求侧资源  价值计算  产值单耗

英文关键词: production simulation  demand-side resources  value calculation  unit consumption of output value

中文摘要:

      在加快绿色低碳能源转型背景下，开发利用电力需求侧资源在保障电力安全供应、促进新型电力系统建设、助力实现“双碳”目标等方面的作用将发挥愈加重要的作用，目前尚未有系统的定量测算其巨大价值的方法，使电力系统规划阶段难以充分考虑需求侧资源。对此提出了基于生产模拟和分行业产值单耗的电力需求侧资源价值计算方法，对需求侧资源在电源侧、电网侧、用户侧的价值进行定量计算，并采用该方法对2025年、2030年国家电网经营范围内的需求侧资源价值进行了测算，分析了相应经济性。其中，至2025年可增加新能源装机800万kW，减小最大峰谷差率约4.6%，减少用户成本400亿元，减少储能总投资600亿元，减少二氧化碳排放8亿t，相较新建电厂年均收益达287亿元。

英文摘要:

      Under the background of energy transformation,the development and utilization of demand-side resources will play an increasingly important role in ensuring safe supply of electricity, promoting development of the new power system, and contribute to achieve“dual carbon”goal. However, there is currently no systematic quantitative measurement method of its huge value, making it difficult to fully incorporate demand-side resources in power system planning. A demand-side resource value calculation method is proposed based on production simulation and sub-sectoral output value unit consumption, which can calculate the value of demand- side resources on power supply side, grid side, and user side. This method measures the value of demand-side resources within the scope of State Grid in 2025 and 2030, and analyzes the corresponding economics. By 2025, the installed capacity of new energy can be increased by 8 million kW, the maximum peak-valley difference ratio can be reduced by 4.6 percentage, the cost of users can be reduced by 40 billion yuan, the total investment of energy storage can be reduced by 60 billion yuan, and the carbon dioxide emission can be reduced by 800 million tons. Compared with new power plants, the annual income can reach 28.7 billion yuan.