基于双对数模型的电力消费弹性系数均值计算方法研究

Research on the calculation method of the mean value of power consumption elasticity coefficient based on double logarithmic model

中文关键词: 电力消费弹性系数  双对数模型  均值  计算方法

英文关键词: power consumption elasticity coefficient  double logarithmic model  mean  calculation method

中文摘要:

      电力消费弹性系数均值是反映某一区域电力消费与经济发展之间中长期关系的重要指标,是开展电力需求预测的重要依据。目前,国内对于电力消费弹性系数均值的计算大多采用算术平均值法,该方法较容易受极端年份数据波动的影响,存在较大误差。为求得更为准确的电力消费弹性系数均值,提出基于双对数模型的时间序列拟合回归方法,该方法选取“地区生产总值”和“全社会用电量”两个样本数据建立时间序列,通过变量替换,将复杂的非线性关系转换为线性关系进行回归拟合分析。通过对回归模型开展检验并与几何平均值法算例进行比较,从统计学角度说明,基于双对数模型计算所得的电力消费弹性系数均值误差更小、可靠性更高。

英文摘要:

      The mean of power consumption elasticity coefficient is an important indicator that reflects the relationship between power con sumption and economic development, and used for power demand forecasting. At present, the calculation of the mean in China mostly adopts the arithmetic mean method, which is more susceptible to extreme year data fluctuations,and cannot avoid significant errors. To ob tain a more accurate mean, a time series fitting regression method based on the double logarithmic model is proposed. which selects“Gross Domestic Product”and“Electricity Consumption of the Whole Society”as samples to establish time series. and performs regression fitting analysis on them under the framework of linear relationships. By conducting tests on the regression model and comparing it with the geo metric mean method example, it is statistically demonstrated that the mean error of the power consumption elasticity coefficient calculated based on the double logarithmic model is smaller and more reliable.