计及碳交易主从博弈的区域电动汽车保有量推演

Estimation of regional electric vehicle ownership considering master-slave game of carbon trading

中文关键词: 电动汽车  碳交易  博弈论  保有量推演  Bass模型

英文关键词: electric vehicles  carbon trading  game theory  ownership estimation  Bass model

中文摘要:

      为了进一步推动电动汽车发展，提出考虑政府、供应商和消费者三方碳交易主从博弈的电动汽车保有量推演方法。首先，基于三方利益诉求，建立以政府为主导的主从博弈模型；其次，综合考虑人群的创新、模仿效应以及价格因素改进Bass模型预测区域电动汽车保有量；进一步地，以博弈下三方的效用函数为目标函数进行优化，从而为改进Bass模型提供参数，进而建立一个保有量预测与车辆市场博弈仿真交替进行的区域电动汽车保有量推演方法。最后，采用上海实际车辆数据，分析将碳交易引入车辆市场对于上海未来几年电动汽车保有量的影响，通过场景对比，验证所提方法具有可行性和经济性。

英文摘要:

      In order to further promote the development of electric vehicles, a method for estimating the ownership of electric vehicles is pro posed considering the master-slave game of carbon trading among the government, suppliers, and consumers. Firstly, based on the interests of the three parties, a master-slave game model led by the government is established. Secondly, considering the innovation, imitation effect,and price factors of the population, the Bass model is improved to predict the regional electric vehicle ownership. Furthermore, the utility functions of the three parties in the game are optimized as the objective function, in order to obtain the basic data under the Nash equilibrium solution for the parameters of the Bass model. And then, establishes a regional electric vehicle ownership prediction method is established by alternating between ownership prediction and vehicle market game simulation. Finally, with actual vehicle data from Shanghai,the impact of introducing carbon trading into the vehicle market on the number of electric vehicles is analyzed in the coming years.Through scenario comparison, the feasibility and economy of the proposed method are verified.