基于系统动力学的工业园区零碳转型可行性评估模型

Feasibility Evaluation Model of Zero Carbon Transformation in Industrial Parks Based on System Dynamics

中文关键词: 零碳园区  能源转型  系统动力学  碳排放  碳减排

英文关键词: zero carbon park  energy transformation  system dynamics  carbon emission  carbon reduction

中文摘要:

      园区零碳转型可行性评估是推进零碳园区发展的重要基础。考虑到园区是否能实现零碳转型受到园区GDP、化石能源消费强度、新能源发电量、减碳技术投资等多因素的综合影响，提出一种基于系统动力学的工业园区零碳转型可行性评估模型，该模型含燃料燃烧及生产过程碳排放、污水处理碳排放、外购电力碳排放、碳汇及CCUS技术减碳四大模块。仿真结果表明：该模型能够预测多因素影响下园区实现零碳转型的具体时间，为园区实现零碳转型的策略配置提供依据。

英文摘要:

      The feasibility assessment of zero carbon transformation in parks is an important basis for promoting the development of zero carbon parks. Considering that whether the park can achieve zero carbon transformation depends on the comprehensive effects of factors such as the park "s GDP, fossil energy consumption intensity, new energy power generation, and carbon reduction technology investment, a feasibility assessment model for zero-carbon transformation of industrial parks based on system dynamics is proposed. The model consists of four modules: fuel combustion and production process carbon emissions, sewage treatment carbon emissions, purchased power carbon emissions, and carbon sinks CCUS technology carbon reduction. The simulation results show that the model can predict the specific time for the park to achieve zero carbon transformation under the influence of multiple factors, and provide guidance for the configuration of emission reduction strategies.