基于SD的售电业务放开对电网企业影响的综合评价研究

Comprehensive Evaluation of the Impact of Opening Power Sales Business Based on System Dynamics on Power Grid Enterprises

中文关键词: 电力改革  售电放开  综合评价  系统动力学

英文关键词: Power reform  Opening up of Power Sales  Comprehensive Evaluation  System Dynamics

中文摘要:

      当前中国正在全面深化电力体制改革，售电业务将大规模放开，在给社会带来红利的同时，对电网企业生产经营产生巨大影响。该文在定性分析售电业务放开对电网企业的影响基础上，引入系统动力学模型开展量化研究。按照业务流程，分别建立了售电业务成本-收入模型、输配电业务收入-成本模型、电力增值服务收入-成本模型、电网人员流失模型、现金流模型、需求侧响应模型、售电及相关业务利润模型等七个分模型。采用某省电力市场2018年年报的相关数据，分市场化电量增速变化、电网售电公司代理电量变化和售电购销价差变化三种情景，对电网相关指标的影响进行了仿真分析。研究对电网企业积极应对改革，以及开展电力体制改革评估工作具有重要的参考价值。

英文摘要:

      At present, China is comprehensively deepening the reform of the electric power system, and the power retail business will be liberalized on a large scale. While bringing dividends to the society, it will have a huge impact on the production and operation of power grid enterprises.Based on the qualitative analysis of the influence of power retail business liberalization on power grid enterprises, this paper introduces the system dynamics model to conduct quantitative research.According to the business process, seven sub-models of power retail business cost-revenue model, power transmission and distribution business revenus-cost model, power value-added service revenus-cost model, grid staff turnover model, cash flow model, demand-side response model, power retail and related business profit model are respectively established.Based on the relevant data of the 2018 annual report of the electric power market of some province, this paper analyzes the influence of the relevant indicators of the electric power grid through three scenarios, namely the change of the growth rate of marketized electric power, the change of the agent electric power of the electric power selling company and the change of the price difference between the purchase and sale of electric power.The study has important reference value for power grid enterprises to actively respond to the reform and carry out the evaluation of power system reform.